A closer look at yesterday's vote.

Thanks to Fred Tsao at ICIRR and Adam Luna at CCC for this overview. As you all know, this morning the Senate voted against a motion to end debate, falling 14 votes short of the 60 votes needed.  The final vote was 46 in favor and 53 opposed.  To see how your Senators voted, go to: http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=110&session=1&vote=00235

Here is a list of Senators that voted for the motion to proceed to debate on Tuesday but then voted against the motion to end debate this morning:

• Sen. Jeff Bingaman, D-New Mexico • Sen. Christopher Bond, R-Missouri • Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio • Sen. Sam Brownback, R-Kansas • Sen. Richard Burr, R-North Carolina • Sen. Norm Coleman, R-Minnesota • Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine • Sen. Pete Domenici, R-New Mexico • Sen. John Ensign, R-Nevada • Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa • Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky • Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Nebraska • Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska • Sen. Mark Pryor, D-Arkansas • Sen. Ted Stevens, R-Alaska • Sen. George Voinovich, R-Ohio • Sen. John Warner, R-Virginia • Sen. James Webb, D-Virginia

Going a step further into the analysis (thanks to Fred Tsao and Adam Luna):

Of the 46 Senators that voted for the motion, 34 of them were Democrats and 12 were Republicans.  Of the 53 Senators that voted against the motion, 16 of them were Democrats and 37 of them were Republicans.  The Democrats that voted against the motion were mostly from conservative states (MT, MO, LA, WV, etc.), but included three labor liberals who flipped their vote to no (Brown, Harkin, Stabenow).

Compared to the June 7 cloture vote that was defeated 45-50, there were 6 Senators that flipped from a yes to a no (1 R, 5 D:  Bayh, Brown, Harkin, Ben Nelson, Stabenow, Voinovich), 7 Senators that flipped from no to yes (6 R, 1 D:  Boxer, Craig, Gregg, Kyl, Lott, Snowe), and 4 Senators who did not vote on June 7 that voted no (all R: Barrasso, Brownback, Coburn, Enzi) though we know that Brownback voted for, then shifted his vote to a "no" when it became clear that the motion would fail.  Even he admitted to us in person that he did it for political reasons.

Among 34 Senators whose seats are up in 2008 (names in red below): 9 voted for cloture: 6 D, 3 R (including Graham and Hagel), 24 voted against cloture: 4 D, 20 R (including Alexander, Allard, Chambliss, Coleman, Dole, Inhofe, McConnell, Sessions) and 1 did not vote.  On this last point, I've attached a memo drafted by CCC staff on which 2008 elections could be considered competitive.  Please take a look at those races that are considered competitive or where there are large Hispanic populations.